SABALENKA TO WIN 2-0 +130
According to our Expected Value Model, Sabalenka has an estimated 74.5% win probability, while the current line (-189 / 1.53) implies only 65.4%. That creates a +14% EV edge.
Due to this opportunity and Sabalenka's experience in these instances we recommend playing the 2-0 sets exact score
Sabalenka holds a clear Elo advantage on hard courts (2149 vs 1963), a gap of +186 points.This translates into a strong expected edge, with Sabalenka’s win probability on the surface above 70%.
Sabalenka maintained a 67% first serve percentage and won 72% of her first serve points in the semifinal against Pegula. In comparison, Anisimova landed only 56% of first serves against Swiatek, a clear gap in reliability under pressure.Meanwhile, Anisimova allowed Osaka to hit 15 aces and still managed only 33% return points on second serves, indicating difficulty neutralizing powerful servers.
Sabalenka entered the final as the defending champion and world No. 1, with a dominant run in New York, dropping only one set prior to the title match.Her aggressive baseline game and experience in Grand Slam finals gave her a significant edge in pressure moments.On top of that, Anisimova carried the emotional baggage from her Wimbledon final collapse (0–6, 0–6) earlier in the season, raising doubts about her ability to sustain peak level when the match tightened